Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2133 at 05:11 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2133 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:11	TPA 08:36	3%	1%	0.6%	92%
WN 2134 Southwest	HOU 15:16	TPA 18:41	23%	4%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099	5h 39m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	HOU 08:00 → DAL 09:10WN 8	3h 01m Dallas	DAL 12:11 → TPA 15:51WN 670	6h 51m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → TPA 17:59DL 1425	6h 19m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:34DL 1195	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 19:58 → TPA 21:30DL 3135	6h 06m	97%	77%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:01 → DAL 13:15WN 24	3h 57m Dallas	DAL 17:12 → TPA 20:47WN 2050	7h 46m	100%	72%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:56 → TPA 16:44AA 1957	6h 12m	94%	71%
American Details →	HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:26 → TPA 22:08AA 2256	6h 45m	90%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON