Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2643 at 14:06, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2643 Southwest	HOU 14:06	TUL 15:44	14%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:53 → DAL 07:07WN 1636	2h 09m Dallas	DAL 09:16 → TUL 10:36WN 1476	4h 43m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620	5h 56m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	7h 24m	99%	83%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:01 → DAL 13:15WN 24	3h 11m Dallas	DAL 16:26 → TUL 17:46WN 4248	5h 45m	100%	81%
American Details →	HOU 09:32 → DFW 10:49AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:10 → TUL 15:30AA 2851	5h 58m	100%	76%
American Details →	HOU 14:23 → DFW 15:43AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:34 → TUL 19:48AA 3715 · flown by Envoy	5h 25m	91%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON