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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2125 at 08:06 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2125 HOU 08:06 → SJC 10:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2358 IAH 09:35 → SFO 11:35 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 2125 Southwest HOU 08:06 SJC 10:10 6% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2102 Southwest HOU 08:06 OAK 10:03 8% 1% 0.6% no record
UA 1845 United IAH 06:30 SFO 08:46 12% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 1768 United Flight history → IAH 07:20 SFO 09:25 14% 4% 0.6% 89%
UA 1202 United IAH 19:49 SFO 22:12 16% 10% 0.6% no record
UA 2744 United Flight history → IAH 08:20 SFO 10:25 18% 6% 0.6% 68%
UA 589 United Flight history → IAH 15:30 SFO 17:35 19% 10% 0.6% 80%
UA 1134 United IAH 17:15 SFO 19:28 21% 9% 0.6% no record
UA 2611 United Flight history → IAH 12:51 SFO 15:12 21% 8% 0.6% 78%
UA 382 United Flight history → IAH 16:25 SFO 18:30 23% 8% 0.6% 73%
UA 2607 United IAH 18:05 SFO 20:20 24% 9% 0.6% no record
UA 2358 United Flight history → IAH 09:35 SFO 11:35 25% 8% 0.6% 74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:10 → LAX 08:30DL 1216 58m Los Angeles LAX 09:28 → SJC 10:49DL 1380 5h 39m 90% 80%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:10 → SFO 08:53AA 1949 5h 51m 92% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON