Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1044 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 1044 IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 2302 IAH 16:58 → ORD 19:49 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1044 United Flight history →	IAH 05:04	ORD 07:59	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 1444 Southwest	HOU 05:01	MDW 07:40	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2616 United Flight history →	IAH 06:10	ORD 09:05	5%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 1617 United Flight history →	IAH 08:05	ORD 11:01	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 2085 Southwest	HOU 08:56	MDW 11:33	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2182 United Flight history →	IAH 07:24	ORD 10:20	7%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 3106 American Flight history →	IAH 06:13	ORD 09:07	8%	4%	1.2%	89%
UA 2124 United Flight history →	IAH 09:35	ORD 12:29	11%	4%	0.6%	86%
WN 234 Southwest	HOU 12:56	MDW 15:33	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1517 American	IAH 09:15	ORD 12:03	16%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2504 American Flight history →	IAH 11:01	ORD 13:52	18%	7%	1.2%	62%
UA 1691 United	IAH 11:55	ORD 14:43	19%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1299 United	IAH 13:57	ORD 16:47	19%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 43 Southwest	HOU 18:44	MDW 21:20	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2775 United	IAH 15:43	ORD 18:33	22%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 2197 United Flight history →	IAH 18:44	ORD 21:40	23%	6%	0.6%	69%
WN 2087 Southwest	HOU 15:22	MDW 17:58	24%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3322 American Flight history →	IAH 14:02	ORD 16:53	24%	9%	1.2%	85%
AA 2243 American	IAH 18:50	ORD 21:44	25%	9%	1.1%	no record
UA 2786 United	IAH 17:16	ORD 20:03	27%	9%	0.6%	no record
F9 3136 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 18:50	ORD 21:42	28%	10%	1.6%	67%
AA 2302 American	IAH 16:58	ORD 19:49	29%	12%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON