Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 27 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1797 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 1797 IAH 06:01 → EWR 10:36 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4684 HOU 14:56 → LGA 19:40 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1797 United Flight history →	IAH 06:01	EWR 10:36	7%	2%	0.8%	93%
WN 682 Southwest	HOU 05:51	LGA 10:37	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
UA 1886 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	EWR 11:59	8%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 1417 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:00	LGA 11:33	13%	5%	1.0%	88%
UA 1697 United Flight history →	IAH 07:00	LGA 11:29	15%	5%	0.8%	87%
UA 1143 United	IAH 07:58	LGA 12:48	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2402 United Flight history →	IAH 09:51	EWR 14:30	20%	7%	0.8%	79%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	IAH 10:57	EWR 15:34	21%	10%	0.8%	73%
DL 1449 Delta	IAH 10:57	LGA 15:44	22%	10%	0.9%	no record
WN 2067 Southwest	HOU 10:51	LGA 15:37	22%	8%	0.8%	no record
B6 1382 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 11:58	JFK 16:38	24%	12%	1.0%	50%
UA 2371 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	EWR 16:46	25%	11%	0.8%	72%
UA 678 United Flight history →	IAH 09:47	LGA 14:29	26%	9%	0.7%	77%
UA 1397 United Flight history →	IAH 13:46	EWR 18:30	27%	13%	0.7%	74%
UA 404 United Flight history →	IAH 18:18	EWR 23:00	28%	10%	0.8%	66%
DL 1438 Delta	IAH 18:38	LGA 23:26	29%	9%	1.1%	no record
UA 2181 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	LGA 16:44	30%	11%	0.7%	66%
UA 2682 United Flight history →	IAH 18:36	LGA 23:26	31%	10%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
DL 1368 Delta	IAH 14:02	LGA 18:48	32%	12%	0.9%	no record
UA 2495 United	IAH 17:16	LGA 22:05	33%	14%	0.7%	no record
WN 3543 Southwest	HOU 17:26	LGA 22:15	35%	13%	0.8%	no record
B6 282 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 18:17	JFK 23:00	35%	16%	1.2%	45%
UA 700 United Flight history →	IAH 16:47	EWR 21:29	36%	14%	0.7%	64%
UA 775 United	IAH 14:37	LGA 19:25	37%	15%	0.7%	no record
UA 334 United Flight history →	IAH 16:15	LGA 20:59	38%	15%	0.7%	61%
UA 2608 United Flight history →	IAH 14:49	EWR 19:35	38%	12%	0.7%	59%
WN 4684 Southwest	HOU 14:56	LGA 19:40	39%	13%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON