Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4362 at 05:26 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 4362 HOU 05:26 → BWI 09:44 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3068 IAH 16:21 → BWI 20:36 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4362 Southwest	HOU 05:26	BWI 09:44	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 852 Southwest	HOU 08:06	BWI 12:37	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1549 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	IAD 11:28	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 604 United Flight history →	IAH 07:40	BWI 11:47	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 512 United Flight history →	IAH 07:54	DCA 12:18	9%	4%	0.6%	95%
WN 2030 Southwest	HOU 08:06	DCA 12:21	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
OH 5463 PSA	IAH 07:13	DCA 11:32	10%	4%	1.2%	no record
UA 1720 United Flight history →	IAH 12:16	BWI 16:30	13%	4%	0.6%	81%
UA 2224 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	DCA 23:59	14%	6%	0.6%	70%
UA 2366 United Flight history →	IAH 12:13	IAD 16:30	16%	5%	0.6%	82%
UA 654 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	DCA 16:03	16%	7%	0.6%	75%
UA 1178 United	IAH 14:47	IAD 18:58	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2032 Southwest	HOU 19:41	DCA 23:58	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2388 United Flight history →	IAH 16:35	IAD 20:46	18%	6%	0.6%	70%
OH 5496 PSA	IAH 10:30	DCA 14:39	18%	7%	1.2%	no record
UA 625 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	DCA 18:31	19%	8%	0.6%	69%
UA 1830 United	IAH 18:25	BWI 23:04	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 235 United	IAH 16:55	DCA 21:18	20%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 2105 Southwest	HOU 15:51	BWI 20:09	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1627 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	DCA 22:15	21%	8%	0.6%	66%
UA 1373 United Flight history →	IAH 18:32	IAD 22:43	21%	6%	0.6%	73%
WN 2031 Southwest	HOU 14:16	DCA 18:31	23%	7%	0.7%	no record
OH 5589 PSA	IAH 17:22	DCA 21:30	24%	10%	1.6%	no record
F9 3068 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 16:21	BWI 20:36	32%	10%	1.1%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON