Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2379 HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 2973 HPN 12:50 → ATL 15:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2379 Delta Flight history →	HPN 06:29	ATL 08:46	9%	4%	1.1%	87%
DL 2973 Delta Flight history →	HPN 12:50	ATL 15:10	15%	4%	0.9%	79%
DL 4930 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	HPN 10:29	ATL 12:53	17%	8%	2.1%	83%
DL 5013 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	HPN 18:49	ATL 21:17	31%	14%	4.5%	69%
DL 5405 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	HPN 16:29	ATL 18:53	49%	30%	9.1%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON