Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5678 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 5678 HPN 06:30 → DCA 07:50 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 5401 HPN 17:26 → DCA 18:58 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5678 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HPN 06:30	DCA 07:50	23%	8%	3.4%	78%
AA 5282 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HPN 11:00	DCA 12:19	34%	13%	3.3%	65%
AA 5254 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HPN 15:22	DCA 16:59	41%	16%	2.8%	47%
AA 5401 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HPN 17:26	DCA 18:58	42%	19%	3.3%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON