Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 4645 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	HPN 12:38	DTW 14:28	29%	13%	4.2%	71%
DL 4643 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	HPN 17:10	DTW 19:15	31%	25%	7.3%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 27m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:50 → ATL 15:10DL 2973	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	7h 23m	99%	83%
American Details →	HPN 06:24 → ORD 08:05AA 3751 · flown by Envoy	1h 40m Chicago	ORD 09:45 → DTW 12:05AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	5h 41m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	HPN 10:29 → ATL 12:53DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	6h 58m	97%	80%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	2h 30m Charlotte	CLT 12:27 → DTW 14:19AA 1683	6h 24m	92%	75%
American Details →	HPN 10:00 → CLT 12:01AA 5431 · flown by PSA	3h 41m Charlotte	CLT 15:42 → DTW 17:34AA 1134	7h 34m	98%	74%
American Details →	HPN 17:26 → DCA 18:58AA 5401 · flown by PSA	2h 02m Washington	DCA 21:00 → DTW 22:44AA 5597 · flown by PSA	5h 18m	86%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON