tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: B6 2695 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
B6 2695 JetBlue Flight history → HPN 07:30 MCO 10:14 8% 4% 2.0% 89%
B6 595 JetBlue Flight history → HPN 16:00 MCO 18:53 26% 14% 3.0% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030 6h 31m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → HPN 06:30 → DCA 07:50AA 5678 · flown by PSA 3h 11m Washington DCA 11:01 → MCO 13:33AA 1153 7h 03m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → HPN 12:50 → ATL 15:10DL 2973 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035 6h 58m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA 2h 39m Charlotte CLT 12:36 → MCO 14:26AA 2117 6h 31m 93% 76%
AmericanDetails → HPN 06:24 → ORD 08:05AA 3751 · flown by Envoy 2h 33m Chicago ORD 10:38 → MCO 14:21AA 3293 7h 57m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → HPN 15:08 → MSP 17:13DL 4693 · flown by Endeavor 2h 32m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → MCO 23:58DL 2309 8h 50m 91% 75%
DeltaDetails → HPN 10:29 → ATL 12:53DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150 6h 11m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → HPN 10:00 → CLT 12:01AA 5431 · flown by PSA 2h 10m Charlotte CLT 14:11 → MCO 15:55AA 1611 5h 55m 94% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → HPN 13:43 → CLT 15:50AA 5180 · flown by PSA 51m Charlotte CLT 16:41 → MCO 18:25AA 1682 4h 42m 74% 50%
AmericanDetails → HPN 17:26 → DCA 18:58AA 5401 · flown by PSA 1h 09m Washington DCA 20:07 → MCO 22:36AA 2139 5h 10m 65% 49%
DeltaDetails → HPN 16:29 → ATL 18:53DL 5405 · flown by Endeavor 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 20:15 → MCO 21:53DL 1735 5h 24m 58% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON