Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 4693 at 15:26, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4693 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HPN 15:26	MSP 17:21	17%	6%	0.8%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind White Plains). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 05:54 → ATL 08:11DL 2379	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	6h 36m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	HPN 10:25 → ATL 12:46DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	8h 53m	99%	85%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	2h 32m Charlotte	CLT 12:29 → MSP 14:23AA 1671	7h 28m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:37 → DTW 14:23DL 4645 · flown by Endeavor	1h 57m Detroit	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	5h 35m	95%	79%
American Details →	HPN 07:10 → ORD 08:51AA 3496 · flown by Envoy	2h 59m Chicago	ORD 11:50 → MSP 13:25AA 2448	7h 15m	98%	79%
American Details →	HPN 13:43 → CLT 15:50AA 5180 · flown by PSA	3h 23m Charlotte	CLT 19:13 → MSP 21:03AA 2176	8h 20m	97%	71%
American Details →	HPN 12:00 → ORD 13:38AA 3812 · flown by Envoy	2h 21m Chicago	ORD 15:59 → MSP 17:34AA 2472	6h 34m	98%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON