Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: B6 1551 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day


B6 1551 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 06:58	RSW 10:04	9%	3%	2.3%	95%
B6 1251 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 12:56	RSW 16:04	22%	7%	2.1%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 05:54 → ATL 08:11DL 2379	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153	6h 17m	98%	84%
American Details →	HPN 07:10 → ORD 08:51AA 3496 · flown by Envoy	3h 22m Chicago	ORD 12:13 → RSW 16:10AA 2561	9h 00m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:50 → ATL 15:09DL 2973	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → RSW 19:39DL 1124	6h 49m	99%	76%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	2h 09m Charlotte	CLT 12:06 → RSW 14:14AA 2018	6h 19m	94%	75%
Delta Details →	HPN 10:25 → ATL 12:46DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379	6h 19m	97%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON