Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:54, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching San Juan on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 05:54 → ATL 08:11DL 2379	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 10:13 → SJU 13:52DL 1882	7h 58m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:50 → ATL 15:09DL 2973	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861	9h 39m	99%	84%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783	6h 55m	93%	78%
JetBlue Details →	HPN 08:30 → MCO 11:11B6 2695	1h 23m Orlando	MCO 12:34 → SJU 15:37B6 1133	7h 07m	92%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	HPN 15:19 → MCO 17:59B6 595	1h 06m Orlando	MCO 19:05 → SJU 22:08B6 433	6h 49m	64%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON