Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, B6 1447 at 06:26, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


B6 1447 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 06:26	TPA 09:20	9%	4%	1.2%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 05:54 → ATL 08:11DL 2379	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587	5h 35m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	HPN 10:25 → ATL 12:46DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759	6h 33m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:50 → ATL 15:09DL 2973	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 17:22 → TPA 18:57DL 1594	6h 07m	99%	78%
American Details →	HPN 06:30 → DCA 07:50AA 5678 · flown by PSA	2h 30m Washington	DCA 10:20 → TPA 12:54AA 3126	6h 24m	95%	77%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	3h 59m Charlotte	CLT 13:56 → TPA 15:51AA 1982	7h 56m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	HPN 15:26 → MSP 17:21DL 4693 · flown by Endeavor	54m Minneapolis	MSP 18:15 → TPA 22:26DL 2385	7h 00m	81%	66%
American Details →	HPN 13:43 → CLT 15:50AA 5180 · flown by PSA	3h 26m Charlotte	CLT 19:16 → TPA 21:12AA 2022	7h 29m	97%	57%
American Details →	HPN 11:02 → CLT 12:53AA 5431 · flown by PSA	2h 43m Charlotte	CLT 15:36 → TPA 17:30AA 545	6h 28m	97%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON