Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 4–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2556 HSV 05:30 → ATL 07:31 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 99% on time Riskiest DL 2182 HSV 12:35 → ATL 14:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2556 Delta Flight history →	HSV 05:30	ATL 07:31	4%	2%	0.6%	99%
DL 3036 Delta Flight history →	HSV 08:50	ATL 10:50	5%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 1708 Delta Flight history →	HSV 09:50	ATL 11:49	5%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 3009 Delta Flight history →	HSV 07:12	ATL 09:17	7%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 3026 Delta Flight history →	HSV 16:20	ATL 18:25	7%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 3065 Delta	HSV 18:26	ATL 20:32	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2182 Delta Flight history →	HSV 12:35	ATL 14:41	8%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 4760 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 14:50	ATL 16:57	44%	24%	0.0%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON