Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5393 HSV 08:35 → CLT 11:04 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 5443 HSV 13:23 → CLT 15:52 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5393 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HSV 08:35	CLT 11:04	15%	5%	1.1%	92%
AA 5443 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HSV 13:23	CLT 15:52	19%	6%	1.0%	81%
AA 5810 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 11:16	CLT 13:57	23%	3%	1.4%	77%
AA 5806 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 14:37	CLT 17:22	23%	7%	1.4%	77%
AA 5811 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 19:02	CLT 21:47	29%	11%	3.9%	71%
AA 5807 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 16:34	CLT 19:20	37%	17%	0.0%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON