Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5442 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 5442 HSV 06:00 → DCA 09:02 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest OH 5143 HSV 13:17 → DCA 16:19 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5442 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HSV 06:00	DCA 09:02	14%	5%	1.9%	79%
AA 3997 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 09:56	DCA 12:59	15%	4%	1.3%	84%
MQ 4249 Envoy	HSV 18:12	DCA 21:12	23%	5%	1.5%	no record
OH 5143 PSA	HSV 13:17	DCA 16:19	24%	8%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON