Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 15–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5141 HSV 04:57 → DFW 06:55 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5383 HSV 14:25 → DFW 16:23 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5141 PSA	HSV 04:57	DFW 06:55	15%	6%	1.7%	no record
AA 3476 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 09:38	DFW 11:35	15%	3%	0.9%	89%
MQ 3634 Envoy	HSV 07:11	DFW 09:24	15%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 3801 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 19:19	DFW 21:16	19%	4%	0.9%	62%
MQ 3504 Envoy	HSV 16:23	DFW 18:20	20%	4%	0.8%	no record
OO 6302 SkyWest	HSV 12:20	DFW 14:28	21%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 5383 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HSV 14:25	DFW 16:23	22%	6%	1.7%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON