tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Albuquerque on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2070 United IAD 17:40 ABQ 20:02 21% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 2 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 09:05 → ABQ 10:12DL 1004 6h 12m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 14:23 → ABQ 15:31DL 1109 7h 10m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:43 → ABQ 11:33AA 3586 · flown by Envoy 7h 19m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 36m Denver DEN 13:41 → ABQ 15:10UA 1594 6h 57m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 17:57 → ABQ 19:14DL 8790 8h 37m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524 1h 05m Houston IAH 12:04 → ABQ 13:27UA 6345 · flown by Mesa 6h 47m 90% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12UA 1095 2h 53m San Francisco SFO 12:05 → ABQ 15:40UA 1597 11h 10m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → IAD 15:05 → DFW 17:13AA 524 1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:23 → ABQ 19:20AA 2698 6h 15m 87% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147 46m San Francisco SFO 12:05 → ABQ 15:40UA 1597 9h 05m 63% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON