Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Seattle, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Anchorage on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 07:00 → SEA 09:45DL 1015	3h 55m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928	13h 25m	99%	79%
Alaska Details →	IAD 08:58 → SEA 11:37AS 375	1h 44m Seattle	SEA 13:21 → ANC 16:08AS 1440	11h 10m	97%	71%
United Details →	IAD 13:15 → ORD 14:29UA 2331	1h 36m Chicago	ORD 16:05 → ANC 19:48UA 461	10h 33m	91%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON