Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 637 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 637 IAD 08:30 → AUS 10:56 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2337 IAD 18:00 → AUS 20:35 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 637 United Flight history →	IAD 08:30	AUS 10:56	9%	3%	0.6%	93%
UA 2746 United Flight history →	IAD 13:10	AUS 15:37	13%	5%	0.6%	82%
UA 2337 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	AUS 20:35	20%	7%	0.6%	80%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	47m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	4h 58m	85%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON