Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1562 at 08:11 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 1562 IAD 08:11 → BDL 09:47 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YV 4029 IAD 12:41 → BDL 14:15 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1562 United	IAD 08:11	BDL 09:47	5%	3%	0.5%	no record
YX 3610 Republic	IAD 17:23	BDL 19:00	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
YV 4029 Mesa	IAD 12:41	BDL 14:15	16%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON