tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4335 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record IAD 12:59 BUF 14:25 18% 6% 2.6% 82%
UA 4823 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record IAD 17:30 BUF 19:03 24% 11% 4.1% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 5h 11m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 7h 36m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 1h 47m Minneapolis MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749 6h 49m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050 6h 04m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:31 → ORD 11:53UA 1252 2h 06m Chicago ORD 13:59 → BUF 16:40UA 580 6h 09m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAD 13:15 → ORD 14:29UA 2331 3h 31m Chicago ORD 18:00 → BUF 20:41UA 1335 7h 26m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 1h 04m Denver DEN 17:33 → BUF 22:45UA 731 8h 10m 90% 70%
FrontierDetails → IAD 11:10 → MCO 13:32F9 4355 1h 36m Orlando MCO 15:08 → BUF 18:09F9 1692 6h 59m 94% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON