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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via SFO, leaving 12:40, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 2h 38m San Francisco SFO 18:05 → BUR 19:34UA 2001 9h 54m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 9h 55m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 51m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 7h 39m 89% 82%
FrontierDetails → IAD 06:03 → LAS 08:18F9 4277 2h 57m Las Vegas LAS 11:15 → BUR 12:41F9 4107 9h 38m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:17 → BUR 11:49AA 1208 8h 35m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147 2h 31m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 9h 42m 98% 73%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 08:58 → SEA 11:37AS 375 2h 18m Seattle SEA 13:55 → BUR 16:24AS 529 10h 26m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12UA 1095 1h 11m San Francisco SFO 10:23 → BUR 11:49UA 2115 8h 19m 92% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 48m San Francisco SFO 16:15 → BUR 17:42UA 2764 8h 02m 71% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON