Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1108 IAD 08:25 → CHS 10:11 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest YX 3535 IAD 17:28 → CHS 19:28 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1108 United Flight history →	IAD 08:25	CHS 10:11	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 1952 United	IAD 13:15	CHS 15:14	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
YX 3535 Republic	IAD 17:28	CHS 19:28	9%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON