tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2335 United IAD 08:16 CLE 09:44 7% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 1709 United Flight history → IAD 12:45 CLE 14:06 13% 5% 0.6% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978 5h 32m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 2h 03m Minneapolis MSP 15:38 → CLE 18:35DL 1118 7h 00m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545 6h 53m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 3h 19m Chicago ORD 12:55 → CLE 15:25UA 1878 7h 10m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:31 → ORD 11:53UA 1252 2h 27m Chicago ORD 14:20 → CLE 16:54UA 1502 6h 23m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 16:51 → CLE 18:42DL 1350 6h 05m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 19:55 → CLE 21:45DL 1339 6h 43m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Detroit DTW 08:35 → CLE 09:37DL 5392 · flown by Endeavor 3h 37m 92% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:22 → MCO 19:45UA 2463 50m Orlando MCO 20:35 → CLE 23:15UA 583 5h 53m 67% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON