Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3001 at 06:22 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 3001 IAD 06:22 → CLT 07:55 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5447 IAD 18:17 → CLT 19:40 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3001 American	IAD 06:22	CLT 07:55	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
OH 5151 PSA	IAD 10:22	CLT 11:44	13%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 1896 American	IAD 08:05	CLT 09:38	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
OH 5154 PSA	IAD 12:25	CLT 13:48	18%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 5447 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAD 18:17	CLT 19:40	24%	6%	1.4%	73%
UA 6239 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 12:43	CLT 14:12	22%	7%	1.4%	78%
UA 6209 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:20	CLT 19:02	27%	9%	5.4%	73%
UA 6234 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 22:24	CLT 23:59	32%	9%	3.0%	68%
UA 4063 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:15	CLT 09:45	38%	2%	0.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON