Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 454 at 12:45, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 454 IAD 12:45 → CMH 14:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 454 United	IAD 12:45	CMH 14:12	11%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 4076 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:25	CMH 09:49	11%	4%	0.0%	89%
UA 4588 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:25	CMH 18:57	17%	10%	6.5%	83%
UA 4420 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 12:45	CMH 14:11	22%	8%	2.7%	78%
UA 4414 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 22:15	CMH 23:42	34%	17%	6.5%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON