Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1865 at 10:13 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1865 IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 599 IAD 17:41 → DEN 19:45 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1865 United Flight history →	IAD 10:13	DEN 12:05	7%	3%	0.6%	93%
UA 1561 United	IAD 06:29	DEN 08:21	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1587 United Flight history →	IAD 12:48	DEN 14:42	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 797 United	IAD 08:15	DEN 10:06	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1126 United Flight history →	IAD 14:35	DEN 16:29	12%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 395 United Flight history →	IAD 15:56	DEN 18:03	18%	5%	0.6%	79%
UA 599 United Flight history →	IAD 17:41	DEN 19:45	22%	6%	0.6%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	50m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	5h 39m	91%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON