Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1998 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–55%.

Safest bet that day UA 1998 IAD 06:41 → EWR 08:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1831 IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1998 United	IAD 06:41	EWR 08:00	11%	3%	1.6%	no record
UA 2396 United Flight history →	IAD 08:29	EWR 09:55	14%	4%	1.2%	89%
UA 1498 United Flight history →	IAD 12:35	EWR 14:01	35%	13%	1.1%	69%
UA 1831 United Flight history →	IAD 17:42	EWR 19:10	55%	17%	0.9%	59%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON