Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1825 at 08:13 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 44%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1825 United Flight history →	IAD 08:13	FLL 11:09	9%	4%	0.6%	89%
F9 2959 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 17:40	FLL 20:23	44%	13%	1.5%	53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512	6h 23m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	57m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → FLL 13:25DL 673	7h 25m	92%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341	6h 00m	98%	81%
United Details →	IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 12:29 → FLL 16:39UA 1294	8h 24m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → FLL 15:41DL 1413	5h 20m	97%	78%
United Details →	IAD 12:48 → DEN 14:42UA 1587	1h 22m Denver	DEN 16:04 → FLL 22:07UA 1374	9h 19m	94%	78%
United Details →	IAD 12:50 → IAH 15:11UA 1535	3h 15m Houston	IAH 18:26 → FLL 22:04UA 1956	9h 14m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 19:58 → FLL 21:56DL 1489	6h 54m	97%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON