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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 13h 20m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Detroit DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307 14h 07m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 13h 43m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → LAX 10:47UA 1734 2h 29m Los Angeles LAX 13:16 → HNL 16:08UA 1224 13h 53m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 13h 04m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:47 → DFW 08:55AA 2617 2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:30 → HNL 14:26AA 5 13h 39m 98% 66%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147 2h 36m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 13h 43m 98% 65%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 1h 18m San Francisco SFO 16:45 → HNL 19:25UA 1509 12h 45m 89% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON