Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1323 IAD 08:53 → LAS 10:54 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 2209 IAD 18:00 → LAS 19:59 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1323 United Flight history →	IAD 08:53	LAS 10:54	11%	3%	0.7%	95%
UA 2156 United Flight history →	IAD 13:00	LAS 15:09	14%	5%	0.8%	91%
F9 4277 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 06:03	LAS 08:18	19%	5%	0.8%	66%
UA 2209 United	IAD 18:00	LAS 19:59	21%	6%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 12m	93%	82%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	1h 23m Denver	DEN 13:28 → LAS 14:28UA 493	7h 15m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 13:15 → LAS 14:18DL 549	6h 57m	95%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON