Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 657 at 09:39 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 657 IAD 09:39 → LAX 12:22 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2276 IAD 17:48 → LAX 20:21 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 657 United	IAD 09:39	LAX 12:22	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1689 United Flight history →	IAD 13:10	LAX 15:42	11%	5%	0.6%	90%
UA 1734 United Flight history →	IAD 08:15	LAX 10:47	12%	3%	0.7%	86%
UA 2011 United	IAD 07:00	LAX 09:32	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 684 United Flight history →	IAD 15:15	LAX 17:47	16%	5%	0.6%	89%
UA 2276 United Flight history →	IAD 17:48	LAX 20:21	23%	6%	0.6%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	8h 12m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	7h 45m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	8h 10m	96%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON