tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 6116 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAD 08:19 LGA 09:48 18% 6% 2.9% 82%
UA 4077 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAD 17:15 LGA 18:42 23% 13% 13.9% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 6h 42m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Detroit DTW 10:05 → LGA 11:50DL 2589 5h 50m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764 7h 45m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 6h 23m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 20:00 → LGA 22:27DL 490 7h 25m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524 6h 29m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 1h 55m Minneapolis MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732 7h 43m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 7h 50m 99% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAD 15:05 → DFW 17:13AA 524 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:04 → LGA 22:49AA 2570 7h 44m 75% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON