tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3505 Republic IAD 12:47 MCI 14:36 10% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 1165 United IAD 17:53 MCI 19:36 19% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 09m Minneapolis MSP 10:02 → MCI 11:35DL 1349 6h 35m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908 6h 11m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 7h 02m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47DL 2884 3h 07m Detroit DTW 15:54 → MCI 16:54DL 2761 6h 44m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 3h 04m Chicago ORD 12:40 → MCI 14:20UA 561 7h 05m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524 3h 36m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 9h 07m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 7h 09m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Detroit DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826 4h 44m 92% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:35 → EWR 14:01UA 1498 46m Newark EWR 14:47 → MCI 17:02UA 3436 · flown by Republic 5h 27m 59% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON