Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 379 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 379 IAD 08:45 → MCO 11:08 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 2463 IAD 17:22 → MCO 19:45 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 379 United Flight history →	IAD 08:45	MCO 11:08	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 2206 United Flight history →	IAD 12:35	MCO 14:58	14%	5%	0.9%	86%
F9 4355 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 11:10	MCO 13:32	16%	7%	1.0%	68%
UA 2861 United	IAD 15:48	MCO 18:04	22%	8%	2.3%	no record
UA 2463 United Flight history →	IAD 17:22	MCO 19:45	24%	8%	0.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON