Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 4986 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:35	MDT 09:40	13%	7%	1.4%	87%
UA 4372 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 12:45	MDT 13:50	15%	6%	0.8%	85%
UA 4964 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 22:26	MDT 23:30	19%	3%	3.7%	81%
UA 4250 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:35	MDT 18:44	20%	13%	3.3%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON