Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 1073 at 08:45, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1073 United Flight history →	IAD 08:45	MIA 11:35	11%	4%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	4h 57m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → MIA 13:37DL 793	7h 37m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 47m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	6h 28m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323	7h 04m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	5h 53m	93%	74%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	6h 34m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47DL 2884	1h 45m Detroit	DTW 14:32 → MIA 17:35DL 2548	6h 25m	100%	73%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:24 → MIA 14:24AA 1454	8h 10m	97%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10UA 1831	1h 32m Newark	EWR 20:42 → MIA 00:01 +1UA 791	6h 19m	72%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON