Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2253 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2253 United Flight history →	IAD 08:40	MSY 10:24	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 251 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	MSY 19:38	19%	7%	0.6%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	6h 37m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	6h 50m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146	6h 36m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MSY 18:24DL 678	6h 47m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 05m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → MSY 10:14DL 2790	5h 14m	92%	83%
United Details →	IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775	1h 29m Chicago	ORD 11:05 → MSY 13:40UA 1532	6h 25m	97%	82%
United Details →	IAD 08:29 → EWR 09:55UA 2396	2h 38m Newark	EWR 12:33 → MSY 14:44UA 2468	7h 15m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → MSY 20:28DL 1450	6h 26m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON