Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4236 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:15	MYR 09:59	22%	5%	0.0%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 09:30 → MYR 10:47DL 3047	4h 47m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 10m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145	4h 39m	93%	84%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182	4h 33m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093	6h 30m	98%	80%
United Details →	IAD 12:35 → EWR 14:01UA 1498	1h 54m Newark	EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03UA 3589 · flown by Republic	5h 28m	90%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON