tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:12DL 1173 7h 57m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:15 → ONT 13:42AA 2635 10h 28m 99% 82%
FrontierDetails → IAD 06:03 → LAS 08:18F9 4277 1h 43m Las Vegas LAS 10:01 → ONT 11:21F9 1283 8h 18m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 8h 53m 98% 77%
FrontierDetails → IAD 12:23 → DFW 14:36F9 4559 2h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:30 → ONT 19:07F9 4689 9h 44m 95% 73%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12UA 1095 1h 28m San Francisco SFO 10:40 → ONT 12:12UA 2661 8h 42m 95% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON