Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2691 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 2691 IAD 06:09 → ORD 07:14 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2497 IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2691 United	IAD 06:09	ORD 07:14	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1252 United Flight history →	IAD 10:31	ORD 11:53	10%	4%	0.6%	92%
UA 1775 United Flight history →	IAD 08:15	ORD 09:36	10%	4%	0.7%	84%
UA 2331 United Flight history →	IAD 13:15	ORD 14:29	17%	6%	0.6%	81%
UA 1703 United	IAD 15:47	ORD 16:52	24%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 2497 United Flight history →	IAD 17:42	ORD 18:50	31%	9%	0.6%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON