Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 6313 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 13:05	ORF 14:17	8%	5%	0.0%	92%
UA 4308 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:45	ORF 18:59	35%	13%	4.2%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 09:46 → ORF 11:28DL 2755	5h 28m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Detroit	DTW 10:03 → ORF 11:58DL 3066	5h 58m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:16DL 2925	5h 49m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101	5h 29m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 20:42 → ORF 22:30DL 2731	7h 28m	98%	85%
United Details →	IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 12:16 → ORF 15:41UA 2807	7h 26m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:54DL 1346	6h 17m	98%	82%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:30 → ORF 14:48AA 2282	8h 34m	97%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON