tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 780 United Flight history → IAD 17:40 PDX 20:19 20% 7% 0.6% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 3h 06m Minneapolis MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:41DL 1661 9h 41m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 2h 23m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 9h 00m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 7h 55m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 9h 58m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 22m Denver DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455 8h 00m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503 9h 19m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 19m Detroit DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171 7h 36m 93% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 19:50 → PDX 21:51DL 691 9h 49m 97% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON