tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4015 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAD 08:35 PHL 09:45 16% 2% 3.4% 84%
UA 4534 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record IAD 17:35 PHL 18:54 34% 16% 11.1% 66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 2h 35m Detroit DTW 10:10 → PHL 11:46DL 2331 5h 46m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 12m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270 4h 57m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 11:32 → PHL 13:43DL 8885 5h 16m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:33DL 1174 7h 31m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47DL 2884 2h 13m Detroit DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391 5h 33m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 1h 57m Chicago ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182 6h 32m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692 5h 43m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 50m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → PHL 18:04DL 2594 6h 29m 90% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON