Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 709 United Flight history →	IAD 08:51	PHX 10:40	10%	3%	0.6%	99%
UA 1938 United Flight history →	IAD 17:50	PHX 19:46	20%	7%	0.6%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	7h 43m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431	7h 57m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	9h 03m	99%	85%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:20 → PHX 11:06AA 2905	7h 52m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	8h 51m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:00 → SEA 09:45DL 1015	3h 45m Seattle	SEA 13:30 → PHX 16:41DL 2442	12h 41m	99%	83%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	3h 30m Denver	DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254	9h 22m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	7h 34m	95%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10UA 1831	1h 31m Newark	EWR 20:41 → PHX 23:03UA 2321	8h 21m	71%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON