tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, YX 3517 at 17:22, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3517 Republic IAD 17:22 PIT 18:35 16% 5% 0.7% no record
UA 6119 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAD 08:30 PIT 09:40 12% 5% 0.0% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 6h 52m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353 7h 23m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 3h 04m Chicago ORD 12:40 → PIT 15:23UA 3432 · flown by Republic 7h 08m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568 6h 47m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 16:57 → PIT 18:47DL 3122 6h 10m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → PIT 14:50AA 2664 8h 36m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 21:14 → PIT 23:00DL 2583 5h 14m 90% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:31 → ORD 11:53UA 1252 2h 32m Chicago ORD 14:25 → PIT 17:10UA 1349 6h 39m 100% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON