Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day G7 4494 IAD 08:16 → PVD 09:49 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4521 IAD 17:26 → PVD 18:58 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4494 GoJet	IAD 08:16	PVD 09:49	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 6262 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAD 12:30	PVD 14:07	12%	4%	0.7%	87%
G7 4521 GoJet	IAD 17:26	PVD 18:58	15%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON