Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 1406 at 08:15, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1406 United Flight history →	IAD 08:15	RSW 10:53	8%	3%	0.7%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153	6h 11m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196	6h 08m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400	7h 27m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379	6h 23m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47DL 2884	1h 41m Detroit	DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225	6h 12m	100%	82%
United Details →	IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → RSW 14:48UA 2137	6h 33m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → RSW 18:55DL 1124	6h 18m	98%	79%
United Details →	IAD 08:29 → EWR 09:55UA 2396	2h 04m Newark	EWR 11:59 → RSW 15:04UA 1810	6h 35m	99%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON